Hello robotaxi! How auto­nomous vehicles are revolu­tionizing car­sharing

Key points regarding investment oppor­tunities in autonomous vehicles and the trend toward car­sharing

1. Carsharing has proven to be a game changer for the concept of the sharing economy and has experienced strong growth over the past 15 years. This growth is expected to remain in the double digits in the coming years.
2. In our opinion, autonomous vehicles could now be another game changer: According to forecasts, the market for autonomous driving could grow to a value of up to USD 4 billion by the beginning of 2030, with an estimated annual growth rate of over 30%.
3. The widespread use of autonomous vehicles could give rise to new ecosystems. Providers of autonomous driving technologies such as Waymo, Baidu, and Pony.ai are at the forefront of this development. But ride-hailing apps such as Uber and Lyft could also benefit.
   

The yellow PostBus buses are as much a part of the Swiss landscape as mountains, spotted cows, and chalets. But this seemingly timeless image is shifting. At the end of October, the Swiss Post subsidiary announced its plans to deploy up to 25 robotaxis to serve areas in Eastern Switzerland that are not adequately covered by traditional bus routes. The service is expected to be operational by 2027.

According to its promoters, the project “AmiGo” is the largest of its kind in Europe. The project partners even have a global reach: the autonomous vehicles will be supplied by Apollo Go, a subsidiary of the Chinese tech giant Baidu. Apollo Go’s robotaxis are already operating in the thousands in Chinese cities like Hong Kong and Wuhan, as well as in Dubai and Abu Dhabi in the UAE.

Carsharing: Revolution through AI?

The Swiss-Chinese venture still faces several hurdles. Nevertheless, it exemplifies a trend that should be of interest to investors focused on sustainable investment themes: autonomous vehicles are becoming increasingly available and affordable, poised to revolutionize carsharing. Carsharing itself is already an established concept within the so-called sharing economy (see box below), which we consider a pillar of the sustainable investment theme of the circular economy.

One of the catalysts for this revolution is the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI). Its application to autonomous driving promises to transport passengers more safely, flexibly, and affordably than a human driver ever could.

Double-Digit growth expected with autonomous vehicles

The breakthrough of autonomous vehicles is also expected to unlock astonishing economic potential. For example, a study by the analytics firm Precedence Research from last September predicts that this market will grow by around 36% annually, reaching a value of up to USD 4,450 billion by 2034.

Interestingly, the technological boost that led to the rise of carsharing was already evident years ago. About 15 years ago, ride-hailing apps began their ascent to becoming a billion-dollar industry (see video above). Thanks to real-time geolocation, digital platforms, and dynamic pricing, providers like Uber and Lyft managed to disrupt traditional taxi services – the term “Uberization” has since become synonymous with the disruption of entire business models.

Carsharing: Ride-hailing apps hit a nerve

Uber and its competitors succeeded because their services met an existing demand. In many places, transportation infrastructure and the availability of taxis and public transport had not kept pace with the global trend toward urbanization. App-based ride-hailing services offered not only a convenient alternative but also a replacement for personal cars, eliminating the stress of traffic jams and parking in major cities. The development of platforms like Uber Mobility demonstrates that these services struck a chord: since 2018, the number of bookings on this platform has grown by an average of 13% annually, as shown in the chart below.

Popular ride-hailing apps: Projected growth of Uber Mobility (number of bookings and growth in %)

Despite this success, Uber faced challenges on the stock market in 2024. Investors suddenly feared that Uber itself might be “Uberized.” The reason? Rapid advancements in autonomous driving, driven by AI, threaten to replace human drivers – still the backbone of Uber’s current model. Although the deployment of robotaxis in cities like Wuhan, Beijing, and San Francisco is still in the testing phase, the breakthrough of autonomous driving is widely expected to be imminent.

Autonomous vehicles: Rapid progress through automation levels

Since 2010, the development of autonomous vehicles has accelerated through various levels of automation, as described by the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE):

Sources: SAE / *Precedence Research, September 2025

Autonomous vehicles utilize a variety of technologies, including GPS, cameras, radar, and lidar (laser pulses to measure distance and speed). However, it is AI that enables vehicles to “perceive” their surroundings and operate safely within them. Deep learning algorithms are also tackling more complex tasks for AI, such as lane changes and predicting the movements of other road users and obstacles.

Autonomous vehicles: A plus for sustainability

If these technological hurdles can be overcome, there may be benefits to reap, particularly in terms of sustainability.

According to the consulting firm Numalis, the human factor – the leading cause of traffic accidents – could be eliminated. Furthermore, AI can optimize speed and braking distances while communicating with other road users. This could save energy, reduce emissions, and minimize traffic congestion.

Last but not least, the most important environmental come from care-sharing itself: the CO₂ savings from not owning a car. For example, the manufacturing of an electric Volkswagen's ID.3 is around 14 tonnes of CO₂, according to the company's own life cycle assessment. This corresponds roughly to the “climate footprint” of a Swiss citizen over an entire year.

Autonomous vehicles: More than just robotaxis

In our view, the development of autonomous vehicles could lead to a significant increase in carsharing, extending far beyond their application as robotaxis. While car sharing apps are still being used today as alternative to taxis and public transportation, we believe than the ascent of autonomous vehicles could change that trend and make people think twice before owning a car, especially in urban areas (see video above).

Companies are already competing for a strong position to capitalize on the potential of autonomous vehicles. The race includes a wide range of players: technology providers like Baidu, Tesla and Waymo (a subsidiary of Alphabet), specialized AI developers like Pony.ai or Cruise (owned by General Motors), and not least ride-hailing providers like Uber.

New ecosystems around autonomous vehicles

Uber has already responded to investor concerns, announcing plans to develop different business models around autonomous driving. While the company will acquire 20,000 autonomous Lucid Gravity vehicles over the next six years in order to test the technology, they were adamant that they do not intend to be a fleet management company (which would be much more capital intensive than their current business model). The company aims to build an ecosystem around autonomous driving and become the "go-to" app to connect technology providers with the final customers. This is another reason why we find the potential breakthrough of self-driving vehicles exciting.

In our opinion, the market has yet to fully price in the potential of such new business models. Interestingly, this is a characteristic they share with the long-term investment theme of the Circular Economy.

Investment theme «Circular Economy»: Insights